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    | THE RULE-BASED MULTILATERAL SYSTEM OF INTERNATIONAL 
      TRADE Has a stage been opened that could lead to an eventual redesign of some 
      of its rules?
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    | by Félix PeñaJuly 2017
 
 English translation: Isabel Romero Carranza
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    |    | The current questioning of the WTO by the US, is based 
        on the fact that it is a system of rules derived from an international 
        economic reality that has long been overcome and whose rules can therefore 
        be considered obsolete. Moreover, these rules allegedly limit the country's 
        ability to defend its national interests in world trade. 
       The final declaration of the recent G20 Summit in Hamburg reflected 
        decisions aimed at addressing the ongoing questioning of the current rule-based 
        international trading system. Although it is a text that seeks to balance 
        the different positions, it does not give any indication as to how to 
        deal with the issue of preserving the rule-oriented trading system, which 
        has more than seven decades of existence, or how to deal with the redesign 
        of its most debated rules. Furthermore, it should be noted that the questioning of some of the 
        rules of the GATT system and later of the WTO originated in the founding 
        moments and that, for the most part, were made by developing countries, 
        including several Latin American ones.  It is possible that some of the questions that arose in the months 
        leading up to the recent G20 Summit will also be present at the XI WTO 
        Ministerial Conference to be held in December in Buenos Aires. This could 
        open a new stage in the redesign of the system and its rules, based on 
        the explicit recognition by all the WTO members that institutions and 
        rules are necessary for the effectiveness of the system, and to guarantee 
        conditions that contemplate the differences of relative power among nations. 
         In such case, the G20 Summit that will take place in Buenos Aires 
        in November 2018, could become an opportunity to assess the progress made 
        in the redesign of the system and eventually, if necessary, to inject 
        the political drive that may be required to achieve this goal. |  
   
    |  The G20 Summit of Hamburg (July 7 and 8, 2017) was held against the 
        backdrop of the questioning by senior officials involved with the trade 
        policies of President Trump's government -especially by the Secretary 
        of Commerce, Wilbur Ross- of the rule-based multilateral system of international 
        trade established in the GATT and later incorporated into the WTO. Such questioning is based on the realization that it is a multilateral 
        system that originated in a global economic reality that has long been 
        overcome and, therefore, many of its mechanisms and rules can be considered 
        obsolete. Moreover, these mechanisms and rules would allegedly limit the 
        possibility of the US to defend its national interests in international 
        trade. The expression "America First" reflects a view that is 
        prevalent in Washington today in relation to this and other aspects. Specifically, the most critical references to the system have been directed 
        at the principle of non-discrimination, embodied in the unconditional 
        most-favored-nation clause of Article I of the GATT; the trade defense 
        mechanisms and their limited effectiveness against what are considered 
        dumping practices in sectors such as steel, and the characteristics and 
        effectiveness of the WTO dispute settlement system. (In this regard, refer 
        to the April 
        2017 edition of this newsletter on http://www.felixpena.com.ar/). 
       The final G20 Summit Declaration of Hamburg failed to reflect the leaders' 
        decisions aimed at addressing the underlying questions that are being 
        raised to the current rule-oriented international trading system and some 
        of its main regulations. In this regard, the leaders merely pointed out 
        that: "We will keep markets open noting the importance of reciprocal 
        and mutually advantageous trade and investment frameworks and the principle 
        of non-discrimination, and continue to fight protectionism including all 
        unfair trade practices and recognize the role of legitimate trade defense 
        instruments in this regard". (Fort the full text of the declaration, 
        published in German and in English only, go to https://www.g20.org/). 
        Although it is a text that seeks to balance the different positions, it 
        does not give any indication as to how to deal with the issue of the preservation 
        of the rule-based multilateral system of international trade, which is 
        more than seven decades old, let alone how to address the redesign of 
        its most questioned rules.  Moreover, it should be noted that the objections to some of the rules 
        of the GATT system and later the WTO originated almost at the moment of 
        their creation and that, for the most part developing countries, including 
        Latin American ones, made them. Therefore, it is not only the current 
        US government that has expressed dissatisfaction with the multilateral 
        system of international trade.  The link between trade and development, for example, was on many occasions 
        at the heart of the critical arguments of Latin American countries with 
        respect to the GATT and later the WTO. The need to make such rules more 
        favorable for the early industrial development of many developing countries 
        and to make the requirements for exceptions to the principle of non-discrimination 
        more flexible in order to facilitate preferential agreements aimed at 
        promoting economic development, was often demanded by Latin American countries. 
       Following the frustrated experience of the International Trade Organization 
        -which resulted in the "provisional" entry of its Chapter IV 
        into the GATT- the subsequent establishment of the UNCTAD reflected the 
        dissatisfaction of the developing countries with the multilateral system 
        of international trade. Moreover, it was also present in the process that 
        led to the launch of the Doha Round.  It was not just the questioning of certain rules of the system. It was 
        also a disagreement with the predominance of an elitist vision of its 
        negotiation mechanisms, reflected in the so-called "Quad", and 
        the lack of transparency of some of its procedures.   It is possible that some of the abovementioned questions that arose 
        in the months leading up to the recent Hamburg Summit will be present 
        at the next WTO Ministerial Conference to be held in Buenos Aires in December. 
        They might not be included on the formal agenda, which is currently being 
        negotiated within the WTO bodies in Geneva. However, they might be present 
        on what could be considered an informal or parallel agenda, which in the 
        political perception might be regarded as the real substantial agenda. 
        
 As was noted previously (see our newsletter of last April) the region 
        can contribute greatly with ideas and initiatives to help with the increasingly 
        necessary redesign of the ground rules and institutions of the multilateral 
        system of international trade, which are now being put into question, 
        precisely, by the country that played a key role in establishing them. 
        This is especially so if we take into account that the WTO Ministerial 
        Conference of December and the 2018 G20 Summit will take place in Buenos 
        Aires.
 The next regional meetings, especially in the context of the initiative 
        launched at the time by the ALADI (see the March 
        2017 edition of this newsletter on http://www.felixpena.com.ar/) 
        and the link between the Pacific Alliance and Mercosur could provide opportunities 
        to try to articulate the positions of the Latin American countries. The question to be answered in relation to the mentioned perspective 
        is: What changes in the design of the multilateral system of international 
        trade and its rules would be more relevant from the point of view of the 
        countries of the region, especially taking into account their strategies 
        for global commercial insertion, the requirements of their regional integration 
        processes and of their own processes of economic and social development? 
        In which aspects of this redesign could positions be articulated with 
        other WTO member countries, including the US?
 Perhaps, the 11th Ministerial Conference will be the right time for WTO 
        member countries to strike a balance. This balance should be between the 
        political need to recognize the importance of a multilateral world trade 
        system based on rules, whose fulfillment is not simply left at the discretion 
        of each nation, and to redesign institutional mechanisms and ground rules 
        that the member countries consider necessary. Political need understood 
        in terms of international trade governance and, therefore, the need to 
        neutralize tendencies towards a new experience of international disorder, 
        such as those that led to the two great wars of the last century.
 This could open a new stage in the redesign of the system and its rules 
        based on the acknowledgement by all WTO members, that institutions and 
        rules are necessary to guarantee conditions that take into account the 
        reality of economic asymmetries and the differences of relative power 
        between nations.  In any case, the next G20 Summit that will take place in Buenos Aires 
        in November 2018 could be an opportunity to assess the progress made in 
        the redesign of the system and possibly, if necessary, to inject the additional 
        political drive that may be required to achieve this goal. |  
   
    | 
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    | Félix Peña Director 
        of the Institute of International Trade at the ICBC Foundation. Director 
        of the Masters Degree in International Trade Relations at Tres de Febrero 
        National University (UNTREF). Member of the Executive Committee of the 
        Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI). Member of the Evian 
        Group Brains Trust. More 
        information. |  
 
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