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  Félix Peña

INTERNATIONAL TRADE RELATIONS NEWSLETTER
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TOWARDS A MORE CREDIBLE, EFFECTIVE AND EFFICIENT MERCOSUR?
Contributions that could result from the conclusion of the Mercosur-EU agreement.

por Félix Peña
March 2023

 

The signs pointing to the possibility of concluding the Mercosur-EU biregional agreement revived with the re-election of Lula da Silva as President of Brazil. Above all, these indications were fueled by changes in the international context, among others, as a consequence of the experience of the war in Ukraine and its multiple and increasingly noticeable effects on world stability, both from an economic and political perspective.

If the political decision to hold the next CELAC-EU Summit in Brussels on July 17 and 18, under the Spanish Presidency, is confirmed, it could be an opportunity to finalize this biregional agreement.

Is it therefore likely that the agreement is signed on the occasion of the July Summit in Brussels? At times, everything would seem to indicate that this will be so. However, nothing strongly indicates that it is a certainty. There are many factors that may still come into play.

How can those dedicated to studying and explaining the issues related to the international insertion strategies of each of the countries involved in this biregional agreement help to understand the relevance and implications of the agreement on the lives and needs of their citizens? This is a question that will have to be answered in the coming months.


After the more than thirty years that were necessary to negotiate the initiative for building a strategic partnership between Mercosur and the European Union, there are now signs that seem to indicate that the agreement could finally be concluded.
These are signals coming from both sides of the Atlantic, which is a positive indicator. However, if this were the case, are we clear about what we should do to take full advantage in each of our countries of the agreement that is finally concluded? This question needs to be answered in order to harness the full potential of the agreement.

Signals about the possibilities of concluding the biregional Mercosur-EU agreement began when Luiz Ignacio "Lula" da Silva was reelected as President of Brazil. However, all the indications started and accentuated by the changes in the international context, among others, as a consequence of the experience of the war in Ukraine and its increasingly noticeable effects on world stability, both from an economic and political perspective.

These changes are beginning to have some practical implications on the idea of trade, especially among those who share values, interests, geographies and principles. Among other things, they highlight the need for a clear instance of dialogue and joint action between Mercosur and the EU.

The political decision to hold the next CELAC-EU Summit in Brussels on July 17 and 18, with Spain as President, if confirmed, would be an opportunity to finalize the agreement. It could be considered a mistake not to take advantage of this biregional Summit to sign the EU agreement with the Mercosur countries, even if the signature was just happening "on the occasion" of the Summit. No one could doubt that such an event would reflect the new dimension that the biregional relationship between Latin America and the EU would be gaining at global level, since it would initiate a new reality for Mercosur in its relations with other regions, such as Africa or Asia and, certainly, with the US and China, among others.

But is it really likely that the biregional agreement is signed on the occasion of the Brussels Summit? At the moment, everything seems to indicate that it is indeed possible. However, it is not absolutely certain that this will happen. There are many factors that may come into play. In this opportunity we can mention one of the many that depend on the Mercosur member countries and which is related to the political leadership among the four Mercosur partners. Will the four Presidents really be interested in taking advantage of the Brussels meeting to sign the biregional agreement? Let us take into account that in July the electoral process currently underway in Argentina, will not have ended yet. How to ensure, for example, that the different presidential candidates have a favorable attitude towards the conclusion and signing of the agreement in July? Also, how to ensure that the agreement does not become a divisive factor at the domestic level, with an impact on the Argentine electoral process? There are other questions that could be asked at this point, but the above mentioned seem to be some of the most relevant.

The agreement with the EU would have a positive impact on the degree of credibility of the Mercosur integration process itself and, in particular, on its capacity to be effective -i.e., to penetrate reality-and to be efficient-i.e., to produce the expected results-, for example, in terms of economic and social development. In other words, to be perceived as a step in the direction of what people might expect from the policies applied in our countries.

How can those of us who are dedicated to studying and explaining issues related to the international insertion strategies of each of our countries help to understand the relevance and the consequences of an agreement such as the one that could be signed next July, on the lives and the needs of the citizens? Or even on the relevant issues to be taken into account by those who are being trained to operate successfully in the future international insertion of each of the Mercosur member countries.

This issue will require special attention in the coming months from experts and relevant institutions in the Mercosur countries. The main question that remains to be answered is: what decisions and actions should be taken in each of the member countries in order to be able to effectively take advantage of the biregional agreement and its possible developments?

Lecturas recomendadas:


Félix Peña es Director del Instituto de Comercio Internacional de la Fundación ICBC; Director de la Maestría en Relaciones Comerciales Internacionales de la Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero (UNTREF); Miembro del Comité Ejecutivo del Consejo Argentino para las Relaciones Internacionales (CARI). Miembro del Brains Trust del Evian Group. Ampliar trayectoria.

http://www.felixpena.com.ar | info@felixpena.com.ar

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