The issue of the completion and subsequent entry into force of the agreement that has been under negotiation for over twenty years between Mercosur and the European Union remains unresolved.
Last March we wondered whether it was possible for the agreement to be signed on the occasion of the bi-regional summit held in Brussels in July of this year.

Yet, five months later, the answer is still clear in the sense that it is not possible to predict the date of the eventual signing of the agreement.

It is also unclear what procedure could be used for parliamentary approval and to ensure the entry into force of the Bi-regional Agreement. From a legal and political point of view this is a relevant issue.

On previous occasions we have addressed the issue of the eventual conclusion and subsequent entry into force of the agreement that has been under negotiation for more than twenty years between Mercosur and the European Union. Perhaps, it is self-evident that it has been a protracted negotiation and this may warrant the question that heads this newsletter: is this negotiation taking too long?

Last March we asked ourselves whether it was possible that the agreement would be signed during the Summit held in Brussels in July of this year. And we answered that, at times, everything seemed to indicate that it was, but we added that "nothing strongly indicates that it is a certainty... there are many factors that may still have an influence".

However, five months later, the answer is still clear in the sense that the date of the eventual signing of the agreement is not yet possible to predict. This is reflected in the only paragraph referring to the agreement in the Final Declaration of the Bi-regional Summit, held in Brussels on July 17 and 18, 2023. The paragraph simply states that "we take note of the ongoing work between the two regions". That is all that was stated in the communiqué, without adding any reference to possible progress in the negotiations. The conclusion seems simple: there was no evidence to predict with certainty a date, even approximate, for finalizing the negotiations and signing the agreement. The reports on the Brussels meeting would support this conclusion.

On the results of the Brussels Summit, see, among others, the article entitled "Latin America: what the EU-CELAC Summit left" by Carlos Malamud, from the Real Instituto Elcano, which was published in Clarín newspaper on July 25, 2023, and the opinion piece "EU-CELAC: avoiding another lost decade" by Josep Borrell Fontelles, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, published in Clarín newspaper on July 26, 2023. Regarding the possible content of the agreement that is still under negotiation, at least with the current texts, an overview can be found in the article by Paula Urien entitled "Ten keys that define the Mercosur agreement with the European Union", published in the Foreign Trade Supplement of La Nación newspaper on July 27, 2023.

In our April newsletter we had already wondered whether it was possible for the negotiations of the bi-regional agreement to be concluded this year and for the path leading to its entry into force to begin. Aside from the doubts that could be observed on both sides of the Atlantic, and which had to do with important issues on which there were ongoing -or resurfacing-differences in substantial interests among the relevant protagonists of the negotiations, we pointed out that there were also other uncertainties related to the modality of the entry into force of the agreement.

Such doubts refer to the effects that the entry into force of the bi-regional agreement could have on Mercosur itself, depending on the procedure of its parliamentary ratification in each of the member countries. In particular, we had referred to the fact that a bilateral process of entry into force might be agreed upon, meaning that the agreement would only apply to the country that has ratified it, but not to the country that has not done so. In practice, this would mean casting aside the idea that the entry into force of the agreement would only take place once all Mercosur member countries had ratified it.

In our opinion, this is still the only advisable alternative from a legal standpoint and, therefore, also from a political point of view. We then concluded by stating that, if the bilateral nature of the ratification were effectively applied, wouldn't the Mercosur customs union in fact turn into a free trade zone? And wouldn't the trade preferences agreed in the Treaty of Asuncion be diluted? We have explained the legal grounds for this idea in detail in the August 2022 issue of this newsletter entitled "A complex issue for the future of Mercosur and the alternatives to face it".

Recommended reading:

• Arguello, Jorge, "Carbón y Acero para América Latina", newspaper Perfil, July 9, 2023, p. 44.
  
• Ariyanto Nugroho, Suryo, "ASEAN´s EV Ecosystem ambitions", East Asia Forum, July 25, 2023, www.eastasiaforum.org.
  
• Borrell Fontelles, Josep, UE-CELAC: evitar otra década perdida", newspaper Clarín, July 26, 2023.
  
• Castro, Jorge, "China ofrece al Mercosur una opción frente al pacto con la UE", newspaper Clarín, June 10, 2021.
  
• Fernández de Soto, Guillermo; Rugeles, Andrés, "América Latina-Unión Europea: de la indiferencia a una asociación estratégica", newspaper El Tiempo, July 2023.
  
• Glosserman, Brad, "Real economic security demands heretical thinking", EastAsiaForum, July 26, 2023, www.eastasiaforum.org.
  
• Han, Troy, "India 's search for data sovereignty", East Asia Forum, July 12, 2023, www.eastsiaforum.org.
  
• Hays, Seith, "Asia's middle powers must find their collective voice in AI governance", East Asia Forum, July 13, 2023, www.eastasiaforum.org.
  
• Kessedjian, Catherine; Naradom, Anne-Thida, "La fábrica del derecho internacional", Le Monde Diplomatique. edition 287, pp. 14-15.
  
• Laporte, Juan Pablo, "La ley de hierro de la política exterior", newspaper Perfil, July 9, 2023, p. 18.
  
• Lim, Darren J., "Economic security and hedging in Southeast Asia", East Asia Forum, July 12, 2023, www.eastasiaforum.org.
  
• Malamud, Carlos, "¿Por qué importa América Latina?", Newspaper Perfil, July 9, 2023, pp. 4 -5.
  
• Malamud, Carlos, "Lo que dejó la Cumbre UE-CELAC", newspaper Clarín, July 25, 2023.
  
• Marinaro, Salvador, "Pekin acelera hacia el futuro", Le Monde Diplomatique, edition 286, April 2023, pp. 24-25.
  
• Matsushima, Hiroshi, "The United States shifts gears in the Asia-Pacific", East Asia Forum, July 20, 2023, www.eastasiaforum.org.
  
• Mearsheimer, John J., "Realismo y rivalidad entre grandes potencias. El fracaso de la hegemonía liberal", Le Monde Diplomatique, edition 290, August 2023, pp. 18-20.
  
• Morozov, Eugeny, "Guerra Fría 2.0. Historia secreta de la inteligencia artificial", Le Monde Diplomatique, edition 287, pp. 20-22.
  
• Raghivansky, Sonal; Bond, Patrick; Putnaik, Prabhat, (editors), "India The G20: Legacy & Prospects for Multilateralism Amidst a Policy Crisis", Yoda Press, New Delhi, 2023.
  
• Rapha, Albert J., "Southeast Asia needs a robust AI governance framework", East Asia Forum, July 21, 2023, www.eastasiaforum.org.
  
• Song, Ligang; Zhou, Yixiao, "China is invaluable to global value chains", East Asia Forum. July 24, 2023, www.estasiaforum.org.
  
• Stern, Philip J. "The Corporations That Built British Colonialism", The Belangs Press of Harvard University Press, Cambridge - London 2023.
  
• Urien, Paula, "Comercio. Diez claves que definen el acuerdo del Mercosur con la Unión Europea", Foreign Trade Supplement, newspaper La Nación, July 27, 2023, pp. 4 - 5.